Greece Golden Visa & Real Estate Market Report — October 2026
AVLA REAL ESTATE · MARKET REPORT · OCTOBER 2026
Greece Golden Visa & Real Estate Market Report — October 2026
Summary: Two trends run side by side in the October 2026 picture: new Golden Visa applications fell 39% in the first seven months of the year, while the stock of active investor permits rose to 34,278 as pending files were decided. The Turkish share grew from 16% in January to 18.2% in June, keeping Turkey second only to China. Apartment price growth eased to 5.5% in the second quarter; Athens leads the yield survey at 5.52% gross. On the regulatory side, the announced start date for the 15% transfer tax on home purchases by non-EU buyers is now 1 July 2027, and its scope has been limited to natural persons. This report captures the market in six numbers.
By M. Sami Akbeniz — Founder, Avla Real Estate, Istanbul · Data cut-off: 1 October 2026
The market in six numbers
34,278 active investor permits (main applicants, end of July 2026), up from 22,001 in June 2025 (Ministry of Migration and Asylum data).
18.2% Turkish investor share — 4,543 permits, second only to China (47.7%) as of June 2026; the share was 16% in January 2026.
−39% new applications (January–July 2026: 3,086); the backlog fell from over 52,000 to 29,273.
+5.5% apartment price growth (Q2 2026, y/y); Athens +5.0%, Thessaloniki +4.7% (Bank of Greece, 15 September 2026).
5.52% Athens gross rental yield — the highest in the survey; Greece average 4.38% (Global Property Guide, May 2026 update).
15.45% announced transfer tax on home purchases by non-EU natural persons (municipal surcharge included); announced start date 1 July 2027, against 3.09% today. Not yet enacted.
01 Demand: fewer applications, a growing permit stock
According to Greece's Ministry of Migration and Asylum, 3,086 new Golden Visa applications were filed in the first seven months of 2026, against 5,028 in the same period last year (−39%). Monthly filings have ranged between 392 and 497; full-year applications were 7,021 in 2025 and a record 9,372 in 2024. Decisions tell the opposite story: 14,113 permits were issued to investors and family members in the first five months of the year (+57%). The backlog fell from more than 52,000 pending files at the start of 2025 to 29,273 at the end of July 2026, and active investor permits reached 34,278. Of the 24,976 valid initial permits recorded in June 2026, Chinese nationals hold 11,921 (47.7%) and Turkish nationals 4,543 (18.2%). Turkey keeps second place with a growing share.
Context: Ministry data show that most new applications now arrive through the €250,000 commercial-to-residential conversion route. On that route the change of use must be completed before an application is filed, so investors who have reserved units in projects still under construction do not yet appear in the statistics. Application counts therefore reflect demand with a lag.
02 Prices: the soft landing continues
Provisional Bank of Greece data released on 15 September 2026 show apartment prices rising 5.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026; the figure reported for the first quarter was 5.7%. On revised data the 2025 average was 8.3% and the 2024 average 9.1%. New apartments (up to five years old) rose 6.2% and older ones 5.0%. The regional order has changed: Athens +5.0%, Thessaloniki +4.7%, other cities +5.4%, other areas +7.1%. Thessaloniki, ahead of Athens in the first quarter, fell behind it in the second; the fastest growth is outside the major cities. Prices are still rising, but the pace has slowed step by step since 2024.
03 Rental yields: Athens 5.52%, the gap is in the neighbourhood
Global Property Guide's current data (last updated May 2026, next update November 2026) put Greece's average gross rental yield at 4.38%. By city: Athens 5.52%, Patras 4.68%, Heraklion 4.25%, Volos 4.20%, Thessaloniki 4.19%, Kavala 3.44%. The spread within Athens is wider than the spread between cities: one-bedroom apartments yield 6.95% in Patision–Acharnon, 6.78% in Patisia and 6.11% in Kypseli, while a two-bedroom in Kolonaki–Lycabettus returns 3.39%. For a Golden Visa investor this means the €800,000 and 120 m² requirement steers buyers into the large-apartment segment where yields compress to 3.5–4.5%, while the €250,000 conversion route channels capital into the neighbourhoods where yields are highest. All figures are gross; after tax, management and vacancy, net yields are typically 1.5–2 points lower. On rent growth, the latest verified figure is Spitogatos's Q1 2026 index: Central Athens rents rose 6.9% year-on-year. City-by-city yield analysis →
04 Tax and regulation: the 2027 timetable takes shape
Transfer tax — date and scope changed: The increase in transfer tax from 3% to 15% on home purchases by non-EU/EEA nationals was announced on 6 September. On 8 September the Finance Minister set the start date at 1 July 2027 and limited the measure to natural persons; purchases by companies are outside its scope. With the municipal surcharge the rate is 15.45% (3.09% today). In the ministry's own example, tax on an €800,000 home rises from €24,000 to €120,000 (before the surcharge). Ethnic Greeks and long-term residents are exempt; the precise limits of those definitions will be settled by the legal text. The measure will travel in an omnibus bill, and details are not final until that text is published.
The €250,000 route remains an open question: In conversion projects the property is residential at the moment of transfer, so it falls within the announced rate. Industry representatives are asking for an exemption or an intermediate rate for this route; the ministry has not adopted the request.
Thresholds unchanged: €800,000 across the whole of Attica, Thessaloniki, Mykonos, Santorini and islands with more than 3,100 inhabitants; €400,000 elsewhere; €250,000 for commercial-to-residential conversions and restoration of listed buildings (Law 5100/2024).
The permit clock starts at the card: Under Law 5275/2026, in force since February 2026, the five-year permit runs from the date the residence card is issued rather than the filing date, and new files are assigned to the office with the shortest queue.
Suspensions that expire at year-end: The 24% VAT suspension on new builds (Law 5246/2025) and the suspension of the 15% capital gains tax both run to 31 December 2026. The 25% middle bracket on rental income (€12,001–24,000) has applied since 1 January 2026. The short-term rental ban on Golden Visa properties (permit revocation and a €50,000 fine) remains in place.
05 Europe panorama: the tightening continues
Europe's residence-by-investment programmes keep narrowing. Spain's programme has been closed since 3 April 2025; Malta's citizenship-by-investment arm ended with the EU Court of Justice ruling of 29 April 2025. September brought two new developments. On 24 September Cyprus's Deputy Minister of Migration said the programme will be tightened before the country joins Schengen and that roughly 12,000 permits issued since 2013 are under review; no new thresholds or timeline have been given, and the current minimum investment is €300,000. In Latvia, a bill to remove the €150,000 fund route was filed in parliament on 3 September. In Portugal the real estate route has been closed since October 2023, and IMI Daily's second-quarter survey reports record processing times there. IMI Daily's March 2026 inventory counts eight active programmes in Europe. Greece remains among those that grant residence through direct property purchase, while tightening its own rules on the tax side. Greece or a closed Spain? → · Greece vs Portugal →
The Avla view
Three points stand out in the October 2026 picture. First, the fall in applications reflects a change in the composition of demand rather than its level: the weight has shifted to the €250,000 conversion route, and the Turkish share is rising. Second, with price growth slowing, the yield gap matters more in choosing a property; in Athens, gross yields vary almost twofold by neighbourhood. Third, the tax timetable is now part of the budget: as announced, transfer tax for non-EU natural-person buyers rises roughly fivefold after 1 July 2027, while the VAT suspension on new builds expires on 31 December 2026. No exact calculation is possible until the legal text is published, but both dates belong in any purchase timetable. We continue to favour properties suited to long-term letting with yields that can be documented.
Sources: Greece Ministry of Migration and Asylum data (June–July 2026; as reported by IMI Daily 27 Aug 2026, Athens News 10 Aug 2026 and moneybuzz.gr 6 Aug 2026); Bank of Greece residential property price index (Q2 2026, 15 Sep 2026); Global Property Guide (May 2026 update); Spitogatos price index (Q1 2026); PwC Tax Summaries Greece (8 Sep 2026); IMI Daily (10, 17, 28 and 30 September 2026). Data cut-off 1 October 2026. Figures reflect the most recent official and market data at publication; seek professional advice before any investment decision.
Talk to Avla Real Estate's specialists about the Golden Visa and choosing the right area in Greece → avlarealestate.com
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