Area report
Real Estate Investment & Valuation Report: Göztepe District and Kemal Kayacan Street — Strategic Asset Analysis (2025-2030 Projection)
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY: "INSTANT GAIN"
This report contains a financial analysis of a property located on Oramiral Kemal Kayacan Street, Göztepe District, Kadıköy, Istanbul — featuring 175 m² of gross usable area and a notably high land share (4.40%).
The most striking finding of the analysis is that the property is offered below both market comparables and replacement cost satışa sunulmuş olmasıdır.
- Calculated Fair Value (Valuation): 730.000 USD
- Current Asking Price: 24.450.000 TL (~568.000 USD - Kur: 43,00)
- Immediate Value Advantage (Discount): %22,11
At the moment of purchase, the investor begins the investment with a ~162.000 USD'lik bir "gizli öz sermaye" kazanımı ile yatırıma başlamaktadır. Bu durum, mülkü standart bir konut alımından çıkarıp, "Değer Yatırımı" (Value Investing) kategorisine sokmaktadır.
2. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK & MARKET DYNAMICS (2025-2030)
Real estate valuation is a derivative of global and local economic parameters rather than an isolated mathematical exercise. This section examines projections for interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and construction costs that will affect the property's value — based on the current TRY 43/USD rate.
2.1. Global & Local Economic Conditions
Reports from international financial institutions indicate that the TRY will continue to lose nominal value over the next five years, while real estate will function as a hedge mechanism to offset this loss. Per projections from Deutsche Bank and other international institutions, expectations for further currency depreciation persist.1 43 TL seviyesindeki mevcut kur, inşaat maliyetlerini halihazırda yukarı çekmiş durumdadır.
2.2. Supply-Demand Balance in Istanbul Housing Market
Istanbul's housing market is facing a housing crisis and supply shortage above historical averages. The 15-story height cap recently imposed in Kadıköy 3 ve arsa stokunun tükenmiş olması, yüksek arsa paylı mülkleri "stratejik varlık" haline getirmiştir. 175 m² brüt alana sahip bu mülk, "sıkışık" yeni projelerin aksine, bölgenin aranan "ferah aile konutu" ihtiyacını karşılamaktadır.
2.3. Construction Costs & Renovation Value
The property being "renovated" and "move-in ready" is a critical advantage against rising costs. The capital and time required to bring a bare apartment up to this property's standard (generator, new plumbing, modern decoration) amplify the appeal of the current asking price.
3. REGIONAL DEEP DIVE: GÖZTEPE & KEMAL KAYACAN STREET ECOSYSTEM
Göztepe sits on Istanbul's Anatolian Side, at the intersection of Bağdat Avenue's cultural heritage and modern urbanism.
3.1. Transit Integration & the "Hub" Effect
- Marmaray (Halkalı-Gebze Line): Mülke sadece 253 metre mesafedeki Göztepe İstasyonu 4— provides fast access to both sides of Istanbul.
- M12 Göztepe-Ataşehir-Ümraniye Metro (2026): %90 seviyesine ulaşan ve 2026'da açılması planlanan bu hat 5— will connect the property to Istanbul Finance Center (IFC). This integration will create a structural upward break in the area's rental and sales figures.
3.2. Micro-Location Advantage
Kemal Kayacan Street is within walking distance of green spaces such as Göztepe Park and Özgürlük (Freedom) Park, making it one of the rare locations offering "Quiet Luxury." Proximity to education (Göztepe İhsan Kurşunoğlu High School, Marmara University) and healthcare institutions guarantees the continuity of demand.
4. mülkün tekni̇k ve fi̇nansal değerlemesi̇
This section provides a detailed analysis of the property based on current data and figures.
4.1. Land Share Analysis: "An Apartment Priced Almost Like Bare Land"
The most striking aspect of this investment is that the bulk of the asking price is covered by land value alone.
- Toplam Arsa: 1.189,15 m²
- Land Share: 93.160 / 2.120.000 (%4,40)
- Land Allocated to Property: 1.189,15 x 0,04394 = 52,25 m².
- Land Unit Value: 9.800 USD/m² (Bölge emsalleri ile uyumlu).
- Property's Pure Land Value: 52,25 m² x 9.800 USD = 512.050 USD.
- Asking Price: ~568.000 USD
- Land Value: ~512.000 USD
- Paid for the Building: ~56.000 USD
The investor effectively pays only 56.000 USD (m² başına 320 USD) ödemektedir. Bu rakam, günümüz inşaat maliyetlerinin (lüks konut için ~1.000-1.250 USD/m²) 3-4 kat altındadır. Yani mülk, ikame maliyetinin (replacement cost) altında satılmaktadır.
4.2. Real Value (Valuation) Calculation
The property's potential fair value ($730,000) is verified as follows:
- Land Value: 512.050 USD
- Building Value (depreciation deducted): 175 m² x 1.250 USD/m² = 218.750 USD
- Total Potential Value: 512.050 + 218.750 = ~730.800 USD
This calculation mathematically proves that the asking price of TRY 24,450,000 ($568K) is 22% below the property's true potential.
4.3. Comparable Sales Analysis (Exchange: 43 TRY)
The table below shows comparable Göztepe-area properties priced at the 43 TRY exchange rate 7:
| Property Type | Location | Price (TRY) | Price (USD - Rate: 43) | m² (Gross) | USD/m² | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This Portfolio | Kemal Kayacan | 24,450,000 | ~568,000 | 175 | 3,245 | Three-Year-Old Building | Never-Lived-In Apartment |
| Comparable 1 | Near Minibüs Avenue | 18,305,000 | ~425,000 | 130 | 3.269 | Brand-New ConstructionListing No: 1283862467 |
| Rakip 2 | Oramiral Kemal Kayacan Sok. | 29.500.000 | ~686.000 | 160 | 4.287 | Move-in Ready 1st Floor — Listing No: 1225840218 |
| Rakip 3 | Taş Mektep Street | 31.000.000 | ~720.930 | 200 | 3.604 | Luxury/Well-Maintained — Listing No: 1270293916 |
| Rakip 4 | Göztepe Park | 49.500.000 | ~1.151.000 | 192 | 5.994 | Brand-New Buildingilan no: 1260709208 |
| Target Value | (Valuation) | - | 730.000 | 175 | 4.171 | Potential Value |
5. strategic 5-year projection (2025-2030)
This projection models the property starting from its current discounted entry level ($568,000) başlayarak, piyasa normalleşmesi ve bölgesel gelişmelerle birlikte önce kendi "gerçek değerine" (730.000 USD) ulaşmasını, ardından piyasa ile birlikte büyümesini modellemektedir.
5.1. USD-Based Price Projection
| Dönem | Estimated Value (USD) | Growth | Notes & Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry (Now) | 568.000 | - | Current Discounted Asking Price (22% advantage entry). |
| 2026 Q4 | 681.000 | +20% | Increased demand from rate cuts and "price correction" in the market. Convergence toward the property's true value. |
| 2027 Q4 | 721.000 | +6% | M12 Metro Opening & IFC Effect. Bölgeye finans profesyonellerinin akını. Gerçek değerin (730k) aşılması. 2028 seçim öncesi para bolluğu etkisi. |
| 2028 Q4 | 782.000 | +8.5% | Exchange rate settling at the 60+ band, safe-haven demand, and Göztepe's branding. |
| 2029 Q4 | 790.000 | +1% | Post-2028 Election Tightening |
| 2030 Q4 | 821.500 | +4% | Peak regional land scarcity and market maturation. |
5.2. Future Outlook
With its Marmaray ve Metro kesişimindeki konumuyla, 2026 sonrasında İstanbul Finans Merkezi çalışanları için birincil tercih olacaktır. Şu anki 568.000 USD'lik fiyat, bölgenin gelecekteki statüsüne kıyasla "giriş bileti" niteliğindedir. Dolar bazında 900 bin USD barajını 2030-2031 civarında test etmesi, bölgedeki lüks konut trendleri ve arsa kıtlığı göz önüne alındığında gerçekçi bir senaryodur.
6. CONCLUSION & FINAL INVESTMENT DECISION
Revised investment decision for this property on Kemal Kayacan Street, Göztepe: "STRONG BUY"
This decision rests on three key data points:
- Mathematical Discount: 730.000 USD'lik değerleme raporuna karşılık, 568.000 USD'lik satış fiyatı ile masaya %22 kârla oturulmaktadır.
- Cost Advantage: Mülkün fiyatı neredeyse sadece arsa değerine eşittir. Üzerindeki 175 m²'lik yapı, yatırımcıya "bedelsiz" verilmektedir.
- Makroekonomik Koruma: 43 TL kur seviyesinde dahi cazip kalan bu fiyat, kurun daha da artması durumunda "yerine koyma maliyetinin" (replacement cost) yükselecek olması nedeniyle yatırımcıyı koruyacaktır.
RELATED LISTING: https://www.avlarealestate.com/properties/goztepe-4arti1-daire
_____________________
M. Sami Akbeniz
Real Estate Investment Advisor
Kentsel Dönüşüm Uzmanı
Avla Real Estate Inc.
Your Trusted Solution Partner
🟨 avlarealestate.sahibinden.com
📧 sami@avla.com.tr 📱
+90 532 282 26 57 | +90 216 470 5381
İstanbul | Dubai | Londra | Atina
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REPUBLIC OF TÜRKİYE — ISTANBUL GOVERNORATE — Trade Directorate
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A senior economist, graduate of Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, and a graduate of Istanbul University Business Administration with 33 years in business; founder of Avla Real Estate. He reads every selection and every agreement himself.
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